Book: The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don’t


Following the triumph of his predictions of the 2012 US election results in the face of massive right-wing criticism, Nate Silver could have easily chosen to write a book about that experience and it probably would have been pretty good. Luckily, though, he chose instead to write a much better book about the art and science of prediction in general, using contemporary examples of successful and failed predictions in many different fields. Spoiler Alert: it all comes down to Bayes’ Theorem.

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