Great biography. I knew very little of Grant prior to this book and a lot of what I thought I knew was wrong or distorted. For example, although rumors of his drinking problem persisted throughout much of his life and color his legacy, there is very little actual evidence of it after the early part of his military career, and no evidence that it affected his presidency. Now I will have to read his autobiography.
Following the triumph of his predictions of the 2012 US election results in the face of massive right-wing criticism, Nate Silver could have easily chosen to write a book about that experience and it probably would have been pretty good. Luckily, though, he chose instead to write a much better book about the art and science of prediction in general, using contemporary examples of successful and failed predictions in many different fields. Spoiler Alert: it all comes down to Bayes’ Theorem.